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(7
): 581-90
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How the pandemic taught us to turn smart beta into real alpha
#MMPMIDC7670287
Kantos C
; diBartolomeo D
ä-/-ä 2020[]; 21
(7
): 581-90
PMIDC7670287
show ga
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has strongly reminded equity investors that rare
but extreme events occur from time to time. At the individual firm level, such
events also impact the likelihood of bankruptcy, a feature that is not well
represented in the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model. This paper presents a
functional form for equity asset pricing that is realistic, and reconciles the
observed high equity risk premium with the observed lower than expected slope of
the Security Market Line. Most importantly, we will demonstrate how including the
potential for such large events changes traditional views of equity returns and
the known factors that contribute to those returns. On the basis of empirical
examination of a dataset stretching over 30 years without survivorship bias, we
conclude that when the probabilities of rare extreme events are considered,
strategies that focus on ?alpha? (risk adjusted return) as defined in Jensen (J
Finance 23(2):389?416, 1967) are structurally superior to ?smart beta? strategies
that seek to outperform a market index benchmark.