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10.1093/rapstu/raaa013

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1093/rapstu/raaa013
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C7543620!7543620!C7543620
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmidC7543620      Rev+Asset+Pricing+Stud ä ; ä (ä): ä
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  • Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations #MMPMIDC7543620
  • Gormsen NJ; Koijen RSJ
  • Rev Asset Pricing Stud ä[]; ä (ä): ä PMIDC7543620show ga
  • We use data from aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors? expectations about economic growth evolved across horizons following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the aggregate stock market in a particular year, can be used to directly compute a lower bound on growth expectations across maturities or to estimate expected growth using a forecasting model. We show how the actual forecast and the bound evolve over time. As of July 20th, our forecast of annual growth in dividends points to a decline of 8% in both the United States and Japan and a 14% decline in the European Union compared to January 1. Our forecast of GDP growth points to a decline of 2% in the United States and Japan and 3% in the European Union. The lower bound on the change in expected dividends is -17% in the United States and Japan and -28% in the European Union at the 2-year horizon. News about U.S. monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus bill around March 24 boosted the stock market and long-term growth but did little to increase short-term growth expectations. Expected dividend growth has improved since April 1 in all geographies.
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