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10.1177/0269216320944810

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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32706299
      Palliat+Med 2020 ; 34 (9 ): 1193-1201
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  • Changing patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Population-based modelling to understand palliative care implications #MMPMID32706299
  • Bone AE ; Finucane AM ; Leniz J ; Higginson IJ ; Sleeman KE
  • Palliat Med 2020[Oct]; 34 (9 ): 1193-1201 PMID32706299 show ga
  • BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has directly and indirectly caused high mortality worldwide. AIM: To explore patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for palliative care, service planning and research. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis and population-based modelling of routine data. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All deaths registered in England and Wales between 7 March and 15 May 2020. We described the following mortality categories by age, gender and place of death: (1) baseline deaths (deaths that would typically occur in a given period); (2) COVID-19 deaths and (3) additional deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. We estimated the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic using simple modelling with explicit assumptions. RESULTS: During the first 10?weeks of the pandemic, there were 101,614 baseline deaths, 41,105 COVID-19 deaths and 14,520 additional deaths. Deaths in care homes increased by 220%, while home and hospital deaths increased by 77% and 90%, respectively. Hospice deaths fell by 20%. Additional deaths were among older people (86% aged???75?years), and most occurred in care homes (56%) and at home (43%). We estimate that 22% (13%-31%) of COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in palliative care needs. Health and social care systems must ensure availability of palliative care to support people with severe COVID-19, particularly in care homes.
  • |*Cause of Death [MESH]
  • |Adult [MESH]
  • |Aged [MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over [MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus [MESH]
  • |COVID-19 [MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*mortality [MESH]
  • |England/epidemiology [MESH]
  • |Female [MESH]
  • |Hospice and Palliative Care Nursing/*organization & administration/*statistics & numerical data [MESH]
  • |Humans [MESH]
  • |Male [MESH]
  • |Middle Aged [MESH]
  • |Models, Statistical [MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*statistics & numerical data [MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*mortality [MESH]
  • |Population Surveillance [MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2 [MESH]


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