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2020 ; 130
(ä): 104907
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Reflecting on the safety zoo: Developing an integrated pandemics barrier model
using early lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic
#MMPMID32834514
Lindhout P
; Reniers G
Saf Sci
2020[Oct]; 130
(ä): 104907
PMID32834514
show ga
Our current predicament, the Covid-19 pandemic is first of all a health crisis.
However, social disruption and economic damage are becoming visible some 7 months
after the Wuhan City outbreak early December 2019. The authors wondered what
could have been done better in prevention and repression of the Covid-19 pandemic
from a safety management and risk control point of view. Within a case study
framework, the authors gathered literature on pandemics, about country response
effectiveness, and about human behaviour in the face of danger. The results
consist of a safety management oriented narrative about the current pandemic,
several critical observations about the current paradigms and shortcomings of
preparation, and a number of opportunities for improvements of countermeasures.
Many of the proverbial animals in the safety zoo, representing typical
behaviours, were observed in action. Based on well proven risk analysis methods -
risk management, event tree, scenarios, bowtie - the authors then analyse the
generic sequence of events in a pandemic, starting from root causes, through
prevention, via the outbreak of a pathogen, through mitigation to long term
effects. Based on this analysis the authors propose an integrated pandemics
barrier model. In this model the core is a generic pandemic scenario that is
distinguishing five risk controllable sequential steps before an outbreak. The
authors contend that the prevention of pandemics via safety management based
biohazard risk control is both possible and of paramount importance since it can
stop pandemic scenarios altogether even before an outbreak.