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2020 ; 53
(ä): e20200331
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Covid-19 growth rate analysis: application of a low-complexity tool for
understanding and comparing epidemic curves
#MMPMID32638889
Pinto AS
; Santos Júnior EGD
; Rodrigues CA
; Nunes PCM
; Cruz LAD
; Costa MGR
; Rocha MODC
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop
2020[]; 53
(ä): e20200331
PMID32638889
show ga
INTRODUCTION: The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization
and comparison of epidemic curves. The objective of this study was to quantify
the acceleration of daily confirmed cases and death curves using the polynomial
interpolation method. METHODS: Covid-19 epidemic curves from Brazil, Germany, the
United States, and Russia were obtained. We calculated the instantaneous
acceleration of the curve using the first derivative of the representative
polynomial. RESULTS: The acceleration for all curves was obtained. CONCLUSIONS:
Incorporating acceleration into an analysis of the Covid-19 time series may
enable a better understanding of the epidemiological situation.