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2020 ; 12
(4
): 719-725
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The impact of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on food prices in
Europe: findings from a preliminary analysis
#MMPMID32837638
Akter S
Food Secur
2020[]; 12
(4
): 719-725
PMID32837638
show ga
This study examines the impact of COVID-19 related 'stay-at-home' restrictions on
food prices in 31 European countries. I combine the European Union's Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) with the Stay-at-Home Restriction Index (SHRI)
from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for
January-May 2020. The results of a series of difference-in-difference regression
models reveal that the severity of stay-at-home restrictions increased overall
food prices by 1% in March 2020, compared to January and February 2020. The
price level for food continued to rise in the high stay-at-home restriction
countries relative to thier counterpart in April but stabilised in May. The food
categories that witnessed the most significant surges in prices were meat, fish &
seafood, and vegetables. The prices of bread & cereals, fruits, milk, cheese &
eggs and oils & fats were not significantly affected. The correlations between
food prices and stay-at-home restrictions were significant after controlling for
cross-country variations in COVID-19 affectedness and other mitigation and
adaptation measures, such as international travel controls, road closures and the
size of the economic stimulus packages. This study presents the first empirical
evidence of food price inflation as an unintended consequence of COVID-19
pandemic containment measures in one of the most severely hit continents of the
world.