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2020 ; 12
(ä): 699-709
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English Wikipedia
Trend Dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Transmission in 16 Cities of Hubei Province, China
#MMPMID32669878
Fawad M
; Mubarik S
; Malik SS
; Hao Y
; Yu C
; Ren J
Clin Epidemiol
2020[]; 12
(ä): 699-709
PMID32669878
show ga
OBJECTIVE: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was
detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in
December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in
countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and
future trends are highly required for future policy implications. METHODS: We
retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model
was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases
among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020. RESULTS: Out of
64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of
cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan
and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture
and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends
in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in
Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of
SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future
forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be
decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days. CONCLUSION: The public must
take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and
avoid extra travelling.