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2020 ; 98
(ä): 321-327
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Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in
social gathering events and industrial activities
#MMPMID32634588
Saidan MN
; Shbool MA
; Arabeyyat OS
; Al-Shihabi ST
; Abdallat YA
; Barghash MA
; Saidan H
Int J Infect Dis
2020[Sep]; 98
(ä): 321-327
PMID32634588
show ga
BACKGROUND: The reproduction number (R(0)) is vital in epidemiology to estimate
the number of infected people and trace close contacts. R(0) values vary
depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection
transmissibility and its pathophysiology dependence. OBJECTIVES: In this study,
we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 clusters mathematically using
a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases as a function of
time. METHODS: We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the R(0) of COVID-19
in an outbreak occurring in both local and international clusters in light of
published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial
activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between
February and April 2020. RESULTS: The highest R(0) values were found in wedding
party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest
value was found in the industrial cluster (2). In return, this will enable us to
assess the trend of coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and
observed patterns. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides predictive COVID-19
transmission patterns in different cluster types based on different R(0) values.
This model offers a contact-tracing task with the predicted number of cases, to
decision-makers; this would help them in epidemiological investigations by
knowing when to stop.