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10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100757

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100757
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C7332228/?report=reader!7332228!C7332228
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmidC7332228      ä-/-ä 2020 ; 49 (ä): 100757
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  • Investment, depreciation and obsolescence of R&D? #MMPMIDC7332228
  • Chinloy P; Jiang C; John K
  • ä-/-ä 2020[Aug]; 49 (ä): 100757 PMIDC7332228show ga
  • Time-varying depreciation rates are estimated for research and development of the United States aggregate economy and innovation-intensive industries. Mean annual R&D depreciation rates are 31.5% for software, 41% for pharmaceuticals, 42% for semiconductors, and 30.4% for aggregate economy during 1978?2014. R&D depreciation rates vary across industries.R&D investment demand has separate elasticities in time-varying depreciation, interest rate and price growth, allowing for different rates of technology shifts across industries. Software R&D investment has the same magnitude of elasticities to depreciation, interest rate and price, supporting a user cost to apply. For pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, depreciation leads to more R&D investment that implies the effect of scale. For aggregate economy, depreciation reduces R&D investment more than interest rate, indicating obsolescence.Forecasting of R&D investment is improved at both industry and aggregate level. Forecastable time-varying depreciation, interest rate and price growth predict R&D investment based on the estimated demand function. The in-sample forecast comparison for 2015?2019 confirms the superiority to the alternative methods. Out-of-sample forecasts of R&D investment are carried out through 2025, and R&D capital stocks are constructed across industries and aggregate U.S. economy.
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