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2020 ; 148
(ä): e118
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Taking the inner route: spatial and demographic factors affecting vulnerability
to COVID-19 among 604 cities from inner São Paulo State, Brazil
#MMPMID32594926
Fortaleza CMCB
; Guimarães RB
; de Almeida GB
; Pronunciate M
; Ferreira CP
Epidemiol Infect
2020[Jun]; 148
(ä): e118
PMID32594926
show ga
Even though the impact of COVID-19 in metropolitan areas has been extensively
studied, the geographic spread to smaller cities is also of great concern. We
conducted an ecological study aimed at identifying predictors of early
introduction, incidence rates of COVID-19 and mortality (up to 8 May 2020) among
604 municipalities in inner São Paulo State, Brazil. Socio-demographic indexes,
road distance to the state capital and a classification of regional relevance
were included in predictive models for time to COVID-19 introduction (Cox
regression), incidence and mortality rates (zero-inflated binomial negative
regression). In multivariable analyses, greater demographic density and higher
classification of regional relevance were associated with both early introduction
and increased rates of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Other predictive factors
varied, but distance from the State Capital (São Paulo City) was negatively
associated with time-to-introduction and with incidence rates of COVID-19. Our
results reinforce the hypothesis of two patterns of geographical spread of
SARS-Cov-2 infection: one that is spatial (from the metropolitan area into the
inner state) and another which is hierarchical (from urban centres of regional
relevance to smaller and less connected municipalities). Those findings may apply
to other settings, especially in developing and highly heterogeneous countries,
and point to a potential benefit from strengthening non-pharmaceutical control
strategies in areas of greater risk.
|Brazil/epidemiology
[MESH]
|COVID-19
[MESH]
|Cities/epidemiology
[MESH]
|Communicable Disease Control
[MESH]
|Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/mortality/prevention & control
[MESH]
|Humans
[MESH]
|Incidence
[MESH]
|Pandemics/prevention & control
[MESH]
|Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/mortality/prevention & control
[MESH]