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2020 ; 148
(ä): e117
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Estimation of incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19: analysis of 178
cases and 131 transmission chains in Hubei province, China
#MMPMID32594928
Yang L
; Dai J
; Zhao J
; Wang Y
; Deng P
; Wang J
Epidemiol Infect
2020[Jun]; 148
(ä): e117
PMID32594928
show ga
A novel coronavirus disease, designated as COVID-19, has become a pandemic
worldwide. This study aims to estimate the incubation period and serial interval
of COVID-19. We collected contact tracing data in a municipality in Hubei
province during a full outbreak period. The date of infection and
infector-infectee pairs were inferred from the history of travel in Wuhan or
exposed to confirmed cases. The incubation periods and serial intervals were
estimated using parametric accelerated failure time models, accounting for
interval censoring of the exposures. Our estimated median incubation period of
COVID-19 is 5.4 days (bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.8-6.0), and the
2.5th and 97.5th percentiles are 1 and 15 days, respectively; while the estimated
serial interval of COVID-19 falls within the range of -4 to 13 days with 95%
confidence and has a median of 4.6 days (95% CI 3.7-5.5). Ninety-five per cent of
symptomatic cases showed symptoms by 13.7 days (95% CI 12.5-14.9). The incubation
periods and serial intervals were not significantly different between male and
female, and among age groups. Our results suggest a considerable proportion of
secondary transmission occurred prior to symptom onset. And the current practice
of 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable.