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2020 ; 12
(554
): ä Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Using influenza surveillance networks to estimate state-specific prevalence of
SARS-CoV-2 in the United States
#MMPMID32571980
Silverman JD
; Hupert N
; Washburne AD
Sci Transl Med
2020[Jul]; 12
(554
): ä PMID32571980
show ga
Detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
infections to date has relied heavily on reverse transcription polymerase chain
reaction testing. However, limited test availability, high false-negative rates,
and the existence of asymptomatic or subclinical infections have resulted in an
undercounting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how
influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be used to estimate
the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We found a surge of non-influenza ILI above the
seasonal average in March 2020 and showed that this surge correlated with
coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts across states. If one-third of
patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States sought care, this ILI
surge would have corresponded to more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections
across the United States during the 3-week period from 8 to 28 March 2020.
Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in
the United States, we also show that the early epidemic in the United States was
unlikely to have been doubling slower than every 4 days. Together, these results
suggest a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States
characterized by rapid spread across the United States with more than 80%
infected individuals remaining undetected. We emphasize the importance of testing
these findings with seroprevalence data and discuss the broader potential to use
syndromic surveillance for early detection and understanding of emerging
infectious diseases.