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10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.010

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.010
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C7317297!7317297!32834331
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmid32834331      Econ+Model 2020 ; 91 (ä): 257-73
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  • Risk, uncertainty, and leverage? #MMPMID32834331
  • Istiak K; Serletis A
  • Econ Model 2020[Sep]; 91 (ä): 257-73 PMID32834331show ga
  • Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.
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