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2020 ; 5
(ä): 56
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Using country-level variables to classify countries according to the number of
confirmed COVID-19 cases: An unsupervised machine learning approach
#MMPMID32587900
Carrillo-Larco RM
; Castillo-Cara M
Wellcome Open Res
2020[]; 5
(ä): 56
PMID32587900
show ga
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has attracted the attention of researchers and
clinicians whom have provided evidence about risk factors and clinical outcomes.
Research on the COVID-19 pandemic benefiting from open-access data and machine
learning algorithms is still scarce yet can produce relevant and pragmatic
information. With country-level pre-COVID-19-pandemic variables, we aimed to
cluster countries in groups with shared profiles of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: Unsupervised machine learning algorithms (k-means) were used to define
data-driven clusters of countries; the algorithm was informed by disease
prevalence estimates, metrics of air pollution, socio-economic status and health
system coverage. Using the one-way ANOVA test, we compared the clusters in terms
of number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, number of deaths, case fatality rate and
order in which the country reported the first case. Results: The model to define
the clusters was developed with 155 countries. The model with three principal
component analysis parameters and five or six clusters showed the best ability to
group countries in relevant sets. There was strong evidence that the model with
five or six clusters could stratify countries according to the number of
confirmed COVID-19 cases (p<0.001). However, the model could not stratify
countries in terms of number of deaths or case fatality rate. Conclusions: A
simple data-driven approach using available global information before the
COVID-19 pandemic, seemed able to classify countries in terms of the number of
confirmed COVID-19 cases. The model was not able to stratify countries based on
COVID-19 mortality data.