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10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110039 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110039 C7305925!7305925!32834598     free     free     free       Chaos+Solitons+Fractals 2020 ; 139 (ä): 110039 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32834598|t=2020. A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic |pdf=|usr=}}{{32834598}} gab.com Text A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic JO: Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32834598 #FOAvip ? model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health. Twit Text FOAVip A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic ????Chaos Solitons Fractals http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32834598 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32834598 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32834598}}</ref> A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic #MMPMID32834598 Soukhovolsky V; Kovalev A; Pitt A; Kessel B Chaos Solitons Fractals 2020[Oct]; 139 (ä): 110039 PMID32834598show ga ? model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health. äA new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing