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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Ecol+Modell 2020 ; 431 (ä): 109187 Nephropedia Template TP
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A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate #MMPMID32834369
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Ecol Modell 2020[Sep]; 431 (ä): 109187 PMID32834369show ga
?A Maximum-Entropy Ecological Niche Model is used to estimate a global-scale probability distribution of COVID-19 high infection rate.?Environmental parameters (surface air temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and humanrelated parameters (CO2 emission and population density) are used in the model.?The model is trained only with data of Italian provinces with high infection rate, but predicts known actual infection focuses, e.g. the Hubei province in China.?A risk index is proposed, which correctly classifies most World countries, which have reported high COVID-19 spread rate, as zones with high-risk of infection rate increase.?The methodology follows an Open-science approach where the model is published as a standardized Web service that maximises re-usability on new data and new diseases, and guarantees the transparency of the approach and the results.