Containing the risk of catastrophic climate change
#MMPMID32837503
Heesterman ARG
Clean Technol Environ Policy
2020[]; 22
(6
): 1215-1227
PMID32837503
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ABSTRACT: There is a general perception that limiting emissions of carbon dioxide
will be sufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change. The reality could well
be that the many of the world's wealthy coastal cities which historically
developed as ports will be inundated repeatedly to disappear eventually below the
sea, with large swathes of the earth being flooded. Other major conurbations may
cease to be liveable without air conditioning, while large numbers of people
could well starve as a result of disruption of ecosystems. To the extent that
this possibility is recognized, it is nevertheless perceived as a gradual process
with the worst results in a distance future with any sea-level rise a gradual
process. Limiting emissions is unlikely to be sufficient, because the level of
carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere is now much higher than ever before
since humans started to exploit fossil fuels. We know this from the study of
ancient air bubbles in Antarctic ice cores. There is a lack of balance between
the energy transmitted by the incoming sunlight and the earth's outgoing infrared
heat radiation. So far this imbalance is absorbed by the enormous thermal mass of
the oceans. As to the speed of sea-level rise, a period of extremely rapid
sea-level rise of about 1.4 cm per year has occurred in the prehistoric past and
disintegration of ice sheets as is happening currently may well be a plausible
explanation of this fact. In fact, it is straightforward to create substantial
amounts of negative emissions of carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, making it happen
will require an unprecedented degree of global cooperation, a high level of
taxation on the extraction of coal and crude oil, and the use of pressurized
liquid petrol gas as aviation fuel.
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