Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 284.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 318.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 318.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 318.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 318.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Warning: imagejpeg(C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\phplern\32551315
.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 Med+J+Islam+Repub+Iran
2020 ; 34
(ä): 26
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during
epidemics? Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons
from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran
#MMPMID32551315
Moradi G
; Piroozi B
; Mohamadi-Bolbanabad A
; Safari H
; Shokri A
; Rahimi R
Med J Islam Repub Iran
2020[]; 34
(ä): 26
PMID32551315
show ga
Background: The new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in China
in 2019. Case fatality rate (CFR) indicator of the disease is one of the most
important indices noticed by experts, policymakers, and managers, based on which
daily evaluations and many judgments are made. CFR can change during epidemics.
This study aimed to estimate the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran and to
calculate the early CFR for the disease based on official statistics. Methods:
This was a descriptive study whose data were obtained from the website of the
Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran from February 20, 2020 until
March 26, 2020. CFR has been obtained by dividing the total number of deaths by
the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. In this study, the
actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated based on the mortality
model in 4 scenarios. Excel 2013 software was used to analyze the data. Results:
According to the findings of this study, In Iran, until March 26, 2020, a total
of 27 017 people have been infected by COVID-19 and 2077 died of it. However, CFR
indicator had a descending trend in Iran: 100%, 18.6%, 8.8%, 3.3%, 6.9%, and 7.7%
on days 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 35, respectively. The actual number of COVID-19
cases in Iran was estimated to be 4 789 454, 2 873 673, 1 436 836, and 718418 as
of March 26, 2020 according to the 4 scenarios, respectively. Conclusion: In
emerging epidemics, CFR indicator must not be used as a basis to judge the
performance of a health system unless that epidemic condition has been clarified.
Moreover, it is suggested that in the outbreak of an epidemic, specifically
emerging diseases, CFR must not be the base of judgment. Making judgments,
specifically in the outbreak of emerging epidemics, based on fatality rate can
lead to information bias. It is also possible to estimate the total number of
patients based on the CFR in circumstances where little information is available
on the disease.