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2020 ; 138
(ä): 110018
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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Time series prediction of COVID-19 by mutation rate analysis using recurrent
neural network-based LSTM model
#MMPMID32565626
Pathan RK
; Biswas M
; Khandaker MU
Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020[Sep]; 138
(ä): 110018
PMID32565626
show ga
SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus mostly known as COVID-19 has created a global
pandemic. The world is now immobilized by this infectious RNA virus. As of June
15, already more than 7.9 million people have been infected and 432k people died.
This RNA virus has the ability to do the mutation in the human body. Accurate
determination of mutation rates is essential to comprehend the evolution of this
virus and to determine the risk of emergent infectious disease. This study
explores the mutation rate of the whole genomic sequence gathered from the
patient's dataset of different countries. The collected dataset is processed to
determine the nucleotide mutation and codon mutation separately. Furthermore,
based on the size of the dataset, the determined mutation rate is categorized for
four different regions: China, Australia, the United States, and the rest of the
World. It has been found that a huge amount of Thymine (T) and Adenine (A) are
mutated to other nucleotides for all regions, but codons are not frequently
mutating like nucleotides. A recurrent neural network-based Long Short Term
Memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict the future mutation rate of this
virus. The LSTM model gives Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.06 in testing and
0.04 in training, which is an optimized value. Using this train and testing
process, the nucleotide mutation rate of 400(th) patient in future time has been
predicted. About 0.1% increment in mutation rate is found for mutating of
nucleotides from T to C and G, C to G and G to T. While a decrement of 0.1% is
seen for mutating of T to A, and A to C. It is found that this model can be used
to predict day basis mutation rates if more patient data is available in updated
time.