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2020 ; 138
(ä): 109969
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Novel Corona virus disease infection in Tunisia: Mathematical model and the
impact of the quarantine strategy
#MMPMID32536761
Fredj HB
; Chérif F
Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020[Sep]; 138
(ä): 109969
PMID32536761
show ga
Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is an extremely serious infection with an
extremely high death rate worldwide. In March, the disease was declared a "global
pandemic" by the World Health Organization (WHO). Until now, there is no known
vaccine or drug, since the unknown things related to the disease are more
important than our theoretical and empirical knowledge. However, mathematical
modeling and the estimation of the basic number of reproductions can provide
clarifications in order to determine the potential and severity of this epidemic
and therefore provide essential information to identify the type of measures and
interventions to be taken to control the intensity of the spread of the disease.
Hence, in this paper, we propose a new deterministic compartmental model based on
the clinical progression of the disease, the epidemiological state of the
individuals and the intervention for the dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our
approach consists of seven phenotypes: the susceptible humans, exposed humans,
infectious humans, the recovered humans, the quarantine population, there
recovered-exposed and deceased population. We proved first through mathematical
approach the positivity, boundness and existence of a solution to the considered
model. We also studied the existence of the disease free equilibrium and
corresponding stability. Our work shows, in particular, that the disease will
decrease if the number of reproduction R (0) was less than one. Moreover, the
impact of the quarantine strategies to reduce the spread of this disease is
discussed. The theoretical results are validated by some numerical simulations of
the system of the epidemic's differential equations. It should be mentioned that,
the error between the considered model and the official data curve is quite
small.