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2020 ; 411
(ä): 132599
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
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English Wikipedia
COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with
consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and
resusceptibility
#MMPMID32536738
Ng KY
; Gui MM
Physica D
2020[Oct]; 411
(ä): 132599
PMID32536738
show ga
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of
the greatest challenges we face in this generation. Computational simulations
have played an important role to predict the development of the current pandemic.
Such simulations enable early indications on the future projections of the
pandemic and is useful to estimate the efficiency of control action in the battle
against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SEIR model is a well-known method used in
computational simulations of infectious viral diseases and it has been widely
used to model other epidemics such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and influenza A. This
paper presents a modified SEIRS model with additional exit conditions in the form
of death rates and resusceptibility, where we can tune the exit conditions in the
model to extend prediction on the current projections of the pandemic into three
possible outcomes; death, recovery, and recovery with a possibility of
resusceptibility. The model also considers specific information such as ageing
factor of the population, time delay on the development of the pandemic due to
control action measures, as well as resusceptibility with temporal immune
response. Owing to huge variations in clinical symptoms exhibited by COVID-19,
the proposed model aims to reflect better on the current scenario and case data
reported, such that the spread of the disease and the efficiency of the control
action taken can be better understood. The model is verified using two case
studies based on the real-world data in South Korea and Northern Ireland.