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2021 ; 27
(2
): 110-115
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Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in
multiple global epicenters
#MMPMID32540223
Lau H
; Khosrawipour T
; Kocbach P
; Ichii H
; Bania J
; Khosrawipour V
Pulmonology
2021[Mar]; 27
(2
): 110-115
PMID32540223
show ga
BACKGROUND: With continuous global COVID-19 outbreak, differing case numbers and
mortality rates are observed. While actual case numbers appear vague, mortality
numbers related to COVID-19 seem more precise. In this study, we used the
mortality rate as the main indicator to evaluate the extent of underreporting and
underdetection of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: We have analyzed all available data
provided by the World Health Organization on the development of international
COVID-19 cases and mortality numbers on March 17th, 2020. A crude case-fatality
risk (cCFR) and adjusted case-fatality risk (aCFR) was calculated for China,
South Korea, Japan, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Iran and the United States.
Additionally, a fold-change (FC) was derived for each country. RESULTS: The
highest aCFR and FC were detected for Spain. Based on their FC values, an
extremely high number of undetected COVID-19 cases was displayed in France, the
United States, Italy and Spain. For these countries, our findings indicate a
detection rate of only 1-2% of total actual COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Due to
limited testing capacities, mortality numbers may serve as a better indicator for
COVID-19 case spread in many countries. Our data indicate that countries like
France, Italy, the United States, Iran and Spain have extremely high numbers of
undetected and underreported cases. Differences in testing availability and
capacity, containment as well as overall health care and medical infrastructure
result in significantly different mortality rates and COVID-19 case numbers for
each respective country.
|*Internationality
[MESH]
|COVID-19 Testing/*statistics & numerical data
[MESH]