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2020 ; 138
(ä): 109971
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Coronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in
South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil
#MMPMID32536762
Djilali S
; Ghanbari B
Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020[Sep]; 138
(ä): 109971
PMID32536762
show ga
In this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of
the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known
safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in
recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals
probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known
that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is
wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission.
For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of
infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in
building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model
allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil.
The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated
time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical
simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on
the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated.