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2020 ; 140
(ä): 106945
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A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital
emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic
#MMPMID32565584
Manca D
; Caldiroli D
; Storti E
Comput Chem Eng
2020[Sep]; 140
(ä): 106945
PMID32565584
show ga
The different stages of Covid-19 pandemic can be described by two key-variables:
ICU patients and deaths in hospitals. We propose simple models that can be used
by medical doctors and decision makers to predict the trends on both short-term
and long-term horizons. Daily updates of the models with real data allow
forecasting some key indicators for decision-making (an Excel file in the
Supplemental material allows computing them). These are beds allocation,
residence time, doubling time, rate of renewal, maximum daily rate of change
(positive/negative), halfway points, maximum plateaus, asymptotic conditions, and
dates and time intervals when some key thresholds are overtaken. Doubling time of
ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency can be as low as 2-3 days at the outbreak of the
pandemic. The models allow identifying the possible departure of the phenomenon
from the predicted trend and thus can play the role of early warning systems and
describe further outbreaks.