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2020 ; 6
(ä): 752-760
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Mortality and Advanced Support Requirement for Patients With Cancer With
COVID-19: A Mathematical Dynamic Model for Latin America
#MMPMID32469610
Ruiz-Patiño A
; Arrieta O
; Pino LE
; Rolfo C
; Ricaurte L
; Recondo G
; Zatarain-Barron ZL
; Corrales L
; Martín C
; Barrón F
; Vargas C
; Carranza H
; Otero J
; Rodriguez J
; Sotelo C
; Viola L
; Russo A
; Rosell R
; Cardona AF
JCO Glob Oncol
2020[May]; 6
(ä): 752-760
PMID32469610
show ga
PURPOSE: In the midst of a global pandemic, evidence suggests that similar to
other severe respiratory viral infections, patients with cancer are at higher
risk of becoming infected by COVID-19 and have a poorer prognosis. METHODS: We
have modeled the mortality and the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement for the
care of patients with cancer infected with COVID-19 in Latin America. A dynamic
multistate Markov model was constructed. Transition probabilities were estimated
on the basis of published reports for cumulative probability of complications.
Basic reproductive number (R0) values were modeled with R using the EpiEstim
package. Estimations of days of ICU requirement and absolute mortality were
calculated by imputing number of cumulative cases in the Markov model. RESULTS:
Estimated median time of ICU requirement was 12.7 days, median time to mortality
was 16.3 days after infection, and median time to severe event was 8.1 days. Peak
ICU occupancy for patients with cancer was calculated at 16 days after infection.
Deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed an interval for mortality between
18.5% and 30.4%. With the actual incidence tendency, Latin America would be
expected to lose approximately 111,725 patients with cancer to SARS-CoV-2 (range,
87,116-143,154 patients) by the 60th day since the start of the outbreak. Losses
calculated vary between < 1% to 17.6% of all patients with cancer in the region.
CONCLUSION: Cancer-related cases and deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 will put a
great strain on health care systems in Latin America. Early implementation of
interventions on the basis of data given by disease modeling could mitigate both
infections and deaths among patients with cancer.