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2020 ; 12
(4
): 723-743
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
New technologies, potential unemployment and nescience economy during and after
the 2020 economic crisis
#MMPMID38607788
Zemtsov S
Reg Sci Policy Prac
2020[Aug]; 12
(4
): 723-743
PMID38607788
show ga
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis in 2020 are accelerating digital
transformation. During and after the crisis, there are opportunities and needs
for remote work facilities, online services, delivery drones, etc. We discuss how
unmanned technologies can cause a long-term employment decrease, and why
compensation mechanisms may not work. Using the internationally comparable
Frey-Osborne methodology, we estimated that less than a third of employees in
Russia work in professions with a high automation probability. Some of these
professions can suffer the most during quarantine measures; employment in
traditional services can be significantly reduced. By 2030, about half of the
jobs in the world and a little less in Russia will need to adapt during the
fourth industrial revolution because they are engaged in routine, potentially
automated activities. In the regions, specializing in manufacturing, this value
is higher; the lowest risk is in the largest agglomerations with a high share of
digital economy, greater and diverse labour markets. Accelerating technological
change can lead to a long-term mismatch between the exponential increase in
automation rate and compensating effects of retraining, new jobs creation and
other labour market adaptation mechanisms. Some people will not be ready for a
life-long learning and competition with robots, and accordingly there is a
possibility of their technological exclusion. The term "nescience economy" and
corresponding assessment method were proposed. Using an econometric model, we
identified factors that reduce these risks: human capital concentration,
favourable business climate, high quality of life and ICT development. Based on
these factors, some recommendations for authorities were proposed in the
conclusion.
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free
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