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Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and
global perspectives
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ä-/-ä 2020[]; 17
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PMIDC7245192
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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic represents a major challenge for the
world economy. While a detailed longer-term diffusion path of the new virus
cannot be anticipated for individual countries, one may anticipate international
supply shocks and declining GDP growth in many OECD countries and China in 2020;
and one should expect falling asset prices in Asia, the United States and the
European Union plus the United Kingdom ? except for the price of risk-free
government bonds. In the course of 2020/21 the US, the EU and the UK, as well as
other countries, will face both an increasing number of infected patients as well
as a higher case fatality ratio. Health care expenditures in the US could
increase more than in the Eurozone and the EU in the medium term, a development
that undermines the international competitiveness of the United States. The
analysis suggests that per capita income is a positive function of the effective
trade openness and of the new Global Health Security Index indicator from the
NTI/Johns Hopkins University. A rising health care-GDP ratio in the US is
equivalent to a rising US export tariff. As regards the coronavirus challenge,
the ratio of acute care beds to the elderly in OECD countries shows considerable
variation. Due to international tourism contraction alone, output growth in the
Eurozone, the US and China can be expected to fall by about 1.6% in 2020. The
COVID-19 challenge for the US Trump Administration is a serious one, since the
lack of experts in the Administration will become more apparent in such a
systemic stress situation ? and this might well affect the November 2020 US
presidential election which, in turn, would itself have considerable impacts on
the UK and the EU27 as well as EU-UK trade negotiations. Integrating the health
care sector into macroeconomics, which should include growth analysis, is an
important task. The role of health quality - and health insurance coverage - for
endogenous time horizons and economic welfare, respectively, is emphasized.
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