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10.1017/bca.2020.12

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/bca.2020.12
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C7242774!7242774 !C7242774
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmidC7242774
      J+Benefit+Cost+Anal 2020 ; ? (?): 1-17
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  • The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19 #MMPMIDC7242774
  • Thunström L ; Newbold SC ; Finnoff D ; Ashworth M ; Shogren JF
  • J Benefit Cost Anal 2020[Apr]; ? (?): 1-17 PMIDC7242774 show ga
  • We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit?cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.
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