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2020 ; 11
(3
): 271-282
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and
Why They All Matter
#MMPMID32427180
Cotton-Barratt O
; Daniel M
; Sandberg A
Glob Policy
2020[May]; 11
(3
): 271-282
PMID32427180
show ga
We look at classifying extinction risks in three different ways, which affect how
we can intervene to reduce risk. First, how does it start causing damage? Second,
how does it reach the scale of a global catastrophe? Third, how does it reach
everyone? In all of these three phases there is a defence layer that blocks most
risks: First, we can prevent catastrophes from occurring. Second, we can respond
to catastrophes before they reach a global scale. Third, humanity is resilient
against extinction even in the face of global catastrophes. The largest
probability of extinction is posed when all of these defences are weak, that is,
by risks we are unlikely to prevent, unlikely to successfully respond to, and
unlikely to be resilient against. We find that it's usually best to invest
significantly into strengthening all three defence layers. We also suggest ways
to do so tailored to the classes of risk we identify. Lastly, we discuss the
importance of underlying risk factors - events or structural conditions that may
weaken the defence layers even without posing a risk of immediate extinction
themselves.