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2020 ; 40
(5
): 915-925
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Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia
#MMPMID32170774
Chen X
; Chughtai AA
; MacIntyre CR
Risk Anal
2020[May]; 40
(5
): 915-925
PMID32170774
show ga
The Grunow-Finke assessment tool (GFT) is an accepted scoring system for
determining likelihood of an outbreak being unnatural in origin. Considering its
high specificity but low sensitivity, a modified Grunow-Finke tool (mGFT) has
been developed with improved sensitivity. The mGFT has been validated against
some past disease outbreaks, but it has not been applied to ongoing outbreaks.
This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome
coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The
publicly available data on human cases of MERS-CoV infections reported in Saudi
Arabia (2012-2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization,
Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks
investigations. The risk assessment of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed
using the original GFT and mGFT criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring
points for each criterion were determined by three researchers to minimize the
subjectivity. The results showed 40 points of total possible 54 points using the
original GFT (likelihood: 74%), and 40 points of a total possible 60 points
(likelihood: 67%) using the mGFT, both tools indicating a high likelihood that
human MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia is unnatural in origin. The findings simply flag
unusual patterns in this outbreak, but do not prove unnatural etiology. Proof of
bioattacks can only be obtained by law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
This study demonstrated the value and flexibility of the mGFT in assessing and
predicting the risk for an ongoing outbreak with simple criteria.
|*Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data
[MESH]
|*Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
[MESH]