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2020 ; 111
(8
): 629-638
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Estimación del efecto en el tamaño y la supervivencia de los tumores cutáneos
debido al confinamiento por COVID-19: modelo basado en un crecimiento
exponencial
#MMPMID32513393
Tejera-Vaquerizo A
; Cañueto J
; Toll A
; Santos-Juanes J
; Jaka A
; Ferrandiz-Pulido C
; Sanmartín O
; Ribero S
; Moreno-Ramírez D
; Almazán F
; Fuente MJ
; Podlipnik S
; Nagore E
Actas Dermosifiliogr (Engl Ed)
2020[Oct]; 111
(8
): 629-638
PMID32513393
show ga
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to
the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences
of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common
diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor
growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and
melanoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort
study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to
estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at
different time points. RESULTS: Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and
neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential
growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after
1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with
T3 SCC (diameter >4cm or thickness >6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in
the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3
months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients
whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%,
respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (>6 mm)
increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1,
2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by
14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: In
the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the
current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable
increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to
encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to
prevent further delays.