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Identification of critical airports for controlling global infectious disease
outbreaks: Stress-tests focusing in Europe
#MMPMID32501381
Nikolaou P
; Dimitriou L
J Air Transp Manag
2020[Jun]; 85
(?): 101819
PMID32501381
show ga
As the global population increases and transportation connectivity improves in
quality and prices, the demand for mobility increases, especially in long-haul
services. According to the 2017 report of the European Commission in Mobility and
Transport, the performance of all modes for passenger transport (roadways and
airways) are reaching record highs. Although the benefits of the increased demand
for mobility are substantial and welcome, an effort should be paid such as to
ameliorate possible threatening side-effects that may also arise. As World Health
Organization (WHO) denotes and as has been evident from the global COVID-19
epidemic outbreak, infectious diseases can be spread directly or indirectly from
one person to another under common exposure circumstances such as air
transportation (especially long-haul airline connections) that may act as the
medium for transmitting and spreading infectious diseases. In this paper,
analytical and realistic models have been integrated, for providing evidence on
the spread dynamics of infectious diseases that may face Europe through the
airlines system. In particular, a detailed epidemiological model has been
integrated with the airlines' and land transport network, able to simulate the
epidemic spread of infectious diseases originated from distant locations.
Additionally, a wide set of experiments and simulations have been conducted,
providing results from detailed stress-tests covering both mild as well as
aggressive cases of epidemic spreading scenarios. The results provide convincing
evidence on the effectiveness that the European airports' system offer in
controlling the emergence of epidemics, but also on the time and extent that
controlling measures should be taken in order to break the chain of infections in
realistic cases.
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