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On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19
Outbreak
#MMPMID32292527
Zhu Y
; Chen YQ
Stat Biosci
2021[]; 13
(1
): 1-17
PMID32292527
show ga
Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19)
had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost
180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged
from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million
population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease
transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility
of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with
various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the
transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data
until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan
city. The estimated R0 was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution
assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious
period. 95% confidence interval of R0 were also reported. Potential issues such
as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were
discussed.
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