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2018 ; 12
(6
): e0006604
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in
Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015
#MMPMID29949572
Wei Y
; Wang Y
; Li X
; Qin P
; Lu Y
; Xu J
; Chen S
; Li M
; Yang Z
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
2018[Jun]; 12
(6
): e0006604
PMID29949572
show ga
BACKGROUND: The epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS)
is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the
associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou
for the period from 2006-2015. METHODS: We obtained data of HFRS cases in
Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the
period of 2006-2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou
Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to
explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS. RESULTS: The
annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging
from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases
decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was
increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to
-0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that
average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS
transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Meteorological factors had significant association
with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides
preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS
and for developing an early warning system.
|*Models, Statistical
[MESH]
|China/epidemiology
[MESH]
|Epidemics
[MESH]
|Epidemiological Monitoring
[MESH]
|Geography
[MESH]
|Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome/*epidemiology
[MESH]