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.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 PLoS+One
2018 ; 13
(4
): e0195248
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Observed to expected or logistic regression to identify hospitals with high or
low 30-day mortality?
#MMPMID29652941
PLoS One
2018[]; 13
(4
): e0195248
PMID29652941
show ga
INTRODUCTION: A common quality indicator for monitoring and comparing hospitals
is based on death within 30 days of admission. An important use is to determine
whether a hospital has higher or lower mortality than other hospitals. Thus, the
ability to identify such outliers correctly is essential. Two approaches for
detection are: 1) calculating the ratio of observed to expected number of deaths
(OE) per hospital and 2) including all hospitals in a logistic regression (LR)
comparing each hospital to a form of average over all hospitals. The aim of this
study was to compare OE and LR with respect to correctly identifying 30-day
mortality outliers. Modifications of the methods, i.e., variance corrected
approach of OE (OE-Faris), bias corrected LR (LR-Firth), and trimmed mean
variants of LR and LR-Firth were also studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To study
the properties of OE and LR and their variants, we performed a simulation study
by generating patient data from hospitals with known outlier status (low
mortality, high mortality, non-outlier). Data from simulated scenarios with
varying number of hospitals, hospital volume, and mortality outlier status, were
analysed by the different methods and compared by level of significance (ability
to falsely claim an outlier) and power (ability to reveal an outlier). Moreover,
administrative data for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke,
and hip fracture from Norwegian hospitals for 2012-2014 were analysed. RESULTS:
None of the methods achieved the nominal (test) level of significance for both
low and high mortality outliers. For low mortality outliers, the levels of
significance were increased four- to fivefold for OE and OE-Faris. For high
mortality outliers, OE and OE-Faris, LR 25% trimmed and LR-Firth 10% and 25%
trimmed maintained approximately the nominal level. The methods agreed with
respect to outlier status for 94.1% of the AMI hospitals, 98.0% of the stroke,
and 97.8% of the hip fracture hospitals. CONCLUSION: We recommend, on the
balance, LR-Firth 10% or 25% trimmed for detection of both low and high mortality
outliers.