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2018 ; 13
(4
): e0191852
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Clinical diagnostic model for sciatica developed in primary care patients with
low back-related leg pain
#MMPMID29621243
Stynes S
; Konstantinou K
; Ogollah R
; Hay EM
; Dunn KM
PLoS One
2018[]; 13
(4
): e0191852
PMID29621243
show ga
BACKGROUND: Identification of sciatica may assist timely management but can be
challenging in clinical practice. Diagnostic models to identify sciatica have
mainly been developed in secondary care settings with conflicting reference
standard selection. This study explores the challenges of reference standard
selection and aims to ascertain which combination of clinical assessment items
best identify sciatica in people seeking primary healthcare. METHODS: Data on 394
low back-related leg pain consulters were analysed. Potential sciatica indicators
were seven clinical assessment items. Two reference standards were used: (i) high
confidence sciatica clinical diagnosis; (ii) high confidence sciatica clinical
diagnosis with confirmatory magnetic resonance imaging findings. Multivariable
logistic regression models were produced for both reference standards. A tool
predicting sciatica diagnosis in low back-related leg pain was derived. Latent
class modelling explored the validity of the reference standard. RESULTS: Model
(i) retained five items; model (ii) retained six items. Four items remained in
both models: below knee pain, leg pain worse than back pain, positive neural
tension tests and neurological deficit. Model (i) was well calibrated (p = 0.18),
discrimination was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)
0.95 (95% CI 0.93, 0.98). Model (ii) showed good discrimination (AUC 0.82; 0.78,
0.86) but poor calibration (p = 0.004). Bootstrapping revealed minimal
overfitting in both models. Agreement between the two latent classes and clinical
diagnosis groups defined by model (i) was substantial, and fair for model (ii).
CONCLUSION: Four clinical assessment items were common in both reference standard
definitions of sciatica. A simple scoring tool for identifying sciatica was
developed. These criteria could be used clinically and in research to improve
accuracy of identification of this subgroup of back pain patients.