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2018 ; 15
(3
): e1002543
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Comparative analysis of the association between 35 frailty scores and
cardiovascular events, cancer, and total mortality in an elderly general
population in England: An observational study
#MMPMID29584726
Aguayo GA
; Vaillant MT
; Donneau AF
; Schritz A
; Stranges S
; Malisoux L
; Chioti A
; Guillaume M
; Muller M
; Witte DR
PLoS Med
2018[Mar]; 15
(3
): e1002543
PMID29584726
show ga
BACKGROUND: Frail elderly people experience elevated mortality. However, no
consensus exists on the definition of frailty, and many frailty scores have been
developed. The main aim of this study was to compare the association between 35
frailty scores and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), incident cancer, and
all-cause mortality. Also, we aimed to assess whether frailty scores added
predictive value to basic and adjusted models for these outcomes. METHODS AND
FINDINGS: Through a structured literature search, we identified 35 frailty scores
that could be calculated at wave 2 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
(ELSA), an observational cohort study. We analysed data from 5,294 participants,
44.9% men, aged 60 years and over. We studied the association between each of the
scores and the incidence of CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality during a 7-year
follow-up using Cox proportional hazard models at progressive levels of
adjustment. We also examined the added predictive performance of each score on
top of basic models using Harrell's C statistic. Using age of the participant as
a timescale, in sex-adjusted models, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence
intervals) for all-cause mortality ranged from 2.4 (95% CI: 1.7-3.3) to 26.2 (95%
CI: 15.4-44.5). In further adjusted models including smoking status and alcohol
consumption, HR ranged from 2.3 (95% CI: 1.6-3.1) to 20.2 (95% CI: 11.8-34.5). In
fully adjusted models including lifestyle and comorbidity, HR ranged from 0.9
(95% CI: 0.5-1.7) to 8.4 (95% CI: 4.9-14.4). HRs for CVD and cancer incidence in
sex-adjusted models ranged from 1.2 (95% CI: 0.5-3.2) to 16.5 (95% CI: 7.8-35.0)
and from 0.7 (95% CI: 0.4-1.2) to 2.4 (95% CI: 1.0-5.7), respectively. In sex-
and age-adjusted models, all frailty scores showed significant added predictive
performance for all-cause mortality, increasing the C statistic by up to 3%. None
of the scores significantly improved basic prediction models for CVD or cancer. A
source of bias could be the differences in mortality follow-up time compared to
CVD/cancer, because the existence of informative censoring cannot be excluded.
CONCLUSION: There is high variability in the strength of the association between
frailty scores and 7-year all-cause mortality, incident CVD, and cancer. With
regard to all-cause mortality, some scores give a modest improvement to the
predictive ability. Our results show that certain scores clearly outperform
others with regard to three important health outcomes in later life. Finally, we
think that despite their limitations, the use of frailty scores to identify the
elderly population at risk is still a useful measure, and the choice of a frailty
score should balance feasibility with performance.