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2016 ; 1
(4
): 213-220
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Prognostic Enrichment Design in Clinical Trials for Autosomal Dominant Polycystic
Kidney Disease: The TEMPO 3:4 Clinical Trial
#MMPMID29142926
Irazabal MV
; Blais JD
; Perrone RD
; Gansevoort RT
; Chapman AB
; Devuyst O
; Higashihara E
; Harris PC
; Zhou W
; Ouyang J
; Czerwiec FS
; Torres VE
Kidney Int Rep
2016[Nov]; 1
(4
): 213-220
PMID29142926
show ga
INTRODUCTION: Patients with slowly progressive autosomal dominant polycystic
kidney disease (ADPKD) are unlikely to experience outcomes during randomized
controlled trials (RCTs). An image classification of ADPKD into typical (diffuse
cyst distribution) class 1A to E (by age- and height-adjusted total kidney volume
[TKV]) and atypical (asymmetric cyst distribution) class 2 was proposed for
prognostic enrichment design, recommending inclusion of only classes 1C to 1E in
RCTs. METHODS: A post hoc exploratory analysis was conducted of the TEMPO 3:4
Trial, a prospective, randomized, double-blinded, controlled clinical trial in
adult subjects with ADPKD, an estimated creatinine clearance >60 ml/min and total
kidney volume >750 ml. RESULTS: Due to the entry criteria, the study population
of TEMPO 3:4 was enriched for classes 1C-E (89.5 % of 1436 patients with baseline
magnetic resonance images) compared to unselected populations (e.g., 60.5% of 590
Mayo Clinic patients). The effects of tolvaptan on TKV and eGFR slopes were
greater in classes 1C to E than in 1B. In TEMPO 3:4, tolvaptan reduced TKV and
eGFR slopes from 5.51% to 2.80% per year and from -3.70 to -2.78 ml/min/1.73 m(2)
per year, and lowered the risk for a composite endpoint of clinical progression
events (hazard ratio = 0.87). Restricting enrollment to classes 1C to E would
have reduced TKV and eGFR slopes from 5.78% to 2.91% per year and from -3.93
to -2.82 ml/min/1.73 m(2) per year, and the risk of the composite endpoint
(hazard ratio = 0.84, P = 0.003), with 10.5% fewer patients. DISCUSSION:
Prognostic enrichment strategies such as the entry criteria used for TEMPO 3:4 or
preferably the proposed image classification should be used in RCTs for ADPKD to
increase power and to reduce cost.