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10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.013

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.013
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C5608688!5608688!28283373
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid28283373      Epidemics 2017 ; 20 (ä): 21-36
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  • Dynamics affecting the risk of silent circulation when oral polio vaccination is stopped #MMPMID28283373
  • Koopman J; Henry C; Park J; Eisenberg M; Ionides E; Eisenberg J
  • Epidemics 2017[Sep]; 20 (ä): 21-36 PMID28283373show ga
  • ?Silent circulation (SC) of wild polio viruses (WPV) when oral polio vaccine (OPV) use is stopped, could threaten eradication.?We analyzed a model designed to develop theory about mechanisms and factors that lead to SC and how SC risks can be assessed using surveillance data.?Prolonged low-level SC emerges as a threshold phenomenon through a mechanism related to balancing contributions of different populations to the effective reproduction number.?Factors that promote this mechanism are many years of inadequate vaccination efforts, ongoing waning of immunity against transmission years after last OPV or WPV infection, low transmissibility of OPV, and high transmission conditions.?Analyzing acute flaccid paralysis surveillance or environmental surveillance data by themselves cannot assess the risk that an SC threshold has been passed, but new methods to analyze them jointly could do so.
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