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2017 ; 23
(4
): ä Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and
the Agricultural Pathway
#MMPMID28943813
Nawrotzki RJ
; Bakhtsiyarava M
Popul Space Place
2017[May]; 23
(4
): ä PMID28943813
show ga
Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse
climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce
(climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on
migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural
pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution
climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the
climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct
four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves,
cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of
household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models
show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal
while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing
evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural
pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression
(GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from
Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut
production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with
the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season
and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.