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2017 ; 14
(8
): ä Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
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The Earth s Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without
Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability
#MMPMID28783136
Krapivin VF
; Varotsos CA
; Soldatov VY
Int J Environ Res Public Health
2017[Aug]; 14
(8
): ä PMID28783136
show ga
This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state
between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical
interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the
conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed
complex model entitled "nature-society system (NSS) model", through which a
reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global
climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly
based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the
parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model
includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the
demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the
survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity,
which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere,
taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and
hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex
global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential
of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the
classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30
soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is
considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status
(high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three
latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the
dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the
world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of
major negative impacts.