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2017 ; 5
(2
): E444-E453
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Clinical prediction rule for delayed hemothorax after minor thoracic injury: a
multicentre derivation and validation study
#MMPMID28611156
Émond M
; Guimont C
; Chauny JM
; Daoust R
; Bergeron É
; Vanier L
; Moore L
; Plourde M
; Kuimi B
; Boucher V
; Allain-Boulé N
; Le Sage N
CMAJ Open
2017[Jun]; 5
(2
): E444-E453
PMID28611156
show ga
BACKGROUND: About 75% of patients with minor thoracic injury are discharged after
an emergency department visit. However, complications such as delayed hemothorax
can occur. We sought to derive and validate a clinical decision rule to predict
hemothorax in patients discharged from the emergency department. METHODS: We
conducted a 6-year prospective cohort study in 4 university-affiliated emergency
departments. Patients aged 16 years or older presenting with a minor thoracic
injury were assessed at 5 time points (initial visit and 7, 14, 30 and 90 d after
the injury). Radiologists' reports were reviewed for the presence of hemothorax.
We used log-binomial regression models to identify predictors of hemothorax.
RESULTS: A total of 1382 patients were included: 830 in the derivation phase and
552 in the validation phase. Of these, 151 (10.9%) had hemothorax at the 14-day
follow-up. Patients 65 years of age or older represented 25.3% (210/830) and
23.7% (131/552) of the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The final
clinical decision rule included a combination of age (> 70 yr, 2 points; 45-70
yr, 1 point), fracture of any high to mid thorax rib (ribs 3-9, 2 points) and
presence of 3 or more rib fractures (1 point). Twenty (30.8%) of the 65 high-risk
patients (score ? 4) experienced hemothorax during the follow-up period. The
clinical decision rule had a high specificity (90.7%, 95% confidence interval
87.7%-93.1%) in this high-risk group, thus guiding appropriate post-emergency
care. INTERPRETATION: One patient out of every 10 presented with delayed
hemothorax after discharge from the emergency department. Implementation of this
validated clinical decision rule for minor thoracic injury could guide emergency
discharge plans.