Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017[Apr]; 114 (17): 4436-41 PMID28396423show ga
In the wake of the 2015?2016 El Niņo, multiple cholera epidemics occurred in East Africa, including the largest outbreak since the 1997?1998 El Niņo in Tanzania, suggesting a link between El Niņo and cholera in Africa. However, little evidence exists for this link. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we found the cholera burden shifts to East Africa during and following El Niņo events. Throughout Africa, cholera incidence increased three-fold in El Niņo-sensitive regions, and 177 million people experienced an increase in cholera incidence. Without treatment, the case fatality rate can reach 50%, but accessible, appropriate care nearly eliminates mortality. Climatic forecasts predicting El Niņo events 6?12 mo in advance could trigger public health preparations and save lives.