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2017 ; 15
(1
): 58
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gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Are potentially clinically meaningful benefits misinterpreted in cardiovascular
randomized trials? A systematic examination of statistical significance, clinical
significance, and authors conclusions
#MMPMID28316281
Allan GM
; Finley CR
; McCormack J
; Kumar V
; Kwong S
; Braschi E
; Korownyk C
; Kolber MR
; Lindblad AJ
; Babenko O
; Garrison S
BMC Med
2017[Mar]; 15
(1
): 58
PMID28316281
show ga
BACKGROUND: While journals and reporting guidelines recommend the presentation of
confidence intervals, many authors adhere strictly to statistically significant
testing. Our objective was to determine what proportions of not statistically
significant (NSS) cardiovascular trials include potentially clinically meaningful
effects in primary outcomes and if these are associated with authors'
conclusions. METHODS: Cardiovascular studies published in six high-impact
journals between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014 were identified via PubMed.
Two independent reviewers selected trials with major adverse cardiovascular
events (stroke, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) as primary
outcomes and extracted data on trial characteristics, quality, and primary
outcome. Potentially clinically meaningful effects were defined broadly as a
relative risk point estimate ?0.94 (based on the effects of ezetimibe) and/or a
lower confidence interval ?0.75 (based on the effects of statins). RESULTS: We
identified 127 randomized trial comparisons from 3200 articles. The primary
outcomes were statistically significant (SS) favoring treatment in 21% (27/127),
NSS in 72% (92/127), and SS favoring control in 6% (8/127). In 61% of NSS trials
(56/92), the point estimate and/or lower confidence interval included potentially
meaningful effects. Both point estimate and confidence interval included
potentially meaningful effects in 67% of trials (12/18) in which authors'
concluded that treatment was superior, in 28% (16/58) with a neutral conclusion,
and in 6% (1/16) in which authors' concluded that control was superior. In a
sensitivity analysis, 26% of NSS trials would include potential meaningful
effects with relative risk thresholds of point estimate ?0.85 and/or a lower
confidence interval ?0.65. CONCLUSIONS: Point estimates and/or confidence
intervals included potentially clinically meaningful effects in up to 61% of NSS
cardiovascular trials. Authors' conclusions often reflect potentially meaningful
results of NSS cardiovascular trials. Given the frequency of potentially clinical
meaningful effects in NSS trials, authors should be encouraged to continue to
look beyond significance testing to a broader interpretation of trial results.