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2017 ; 13
(1
): e1006198
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of
hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
#MMPMID28141833
Tian H
; Yu P
; Bjørnstad ON
; Cazelles B
; Yang J
; Tan H
; Huang S
; Cui Y
; Dong L
; Ma C
; Ma C
; Zhou S
; Laine M
; Wu X
; Zhang Y
; Wang J
; Yang R
; Stenseth NC
; Xu B
PLoS Pathog
2017[Jan]; 13
(1
): e1006198
PMID28141833
show ga
Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public
health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical
for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid
changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a
rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with
epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in
the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental
fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental
forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading
effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading
to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models
demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in
transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and
rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.
|*Host-Pathogen Interactions
[MESH]
|Animals
[MESH]
|Bayes Theorem
[MESH]
|China/epidemiology
[MESH]
|Ecology
[MESH]
|Environment
[MESH]
|Female
[MESH]
|Geography
[MESH]
|Hantaan virus/*physiology
[MESH]
|Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome/*epidemiology/transmission/virology
[MESH]