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A Novel Method for Verifying War Mortality while Estimating Iraqi Deaths for the
Iran-Iraq War through Operation Desert Storm (1980-1993)
#MMPMID27768730
Li SJ
; Flaxman A
; Lafta R
; Galway L
; Takaro TK
; Burnham G
; Hagopian A
PLoS One
2016[]; 11
(10
): e0164709
PMID27768730
show ga
OBJECTIVES: We estimated war-related Iraqi mortality for the period 1980 through
1993. METHOD: To test our hypothesis that deaths reported by siblings (even
dating back several decades) would correspond with war events, we compared
sibling mortality reports with the frequency of independent news reports about
violent historic events. We used data from a survey of 4,287 adults in 2000 Iraqi
households conducted in 2011. Interviewees reported on the status of their 24,759
siblings. Death rates were applied to population estimates, 1980 to 1993. News
report data came from the ProQuest New York Times database. RESULTS: About half
of sibling-reported deaths across the study period were attributed to direct
war-related injuries. The Iran-Iraq war led to nearly 200,000 adult deaths, and
the 1990-1991 First Gulf War generated another approximately 40,000 deaths.
Deaths during peace intervals before and after each war were significantly lower.
We found a relationship between total sibling-reported deaths and the tally of
war events across the period, p = 0.02. CONCLUSIONS: We report a novel method to
verify the reliability of epidemiological (household survey) estimates of direct
war-related injury mortality dating back several decades.
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