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2016 ; 388
(10048
): 983-93
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Biopsy transcriptome expression profiling to identify kidney transplants at risk
of chronic injury: a multicentre, prospective study
#MMPMID27452608
O'Connell PJ
; Zhang W
; Menon MC
; Yi Z
; Schröppel B
; Gallon L
; Luan Y
; Rosales IA
; Ge Y
; Losic B
; Xi C
; Woytovich C
; Keung KL
; Wei C
; Greene I
; Overbey J
; Bagiella E
; Najafian N
; Samaniego M
; Djamali A
; Alexander SI
; Nankivell BJ
; Chapman JR
; Smith RN
; Colvin R
; Murphy B
Lancet
2016[Sep]; 388
(10048
): 983-93
PMID27452608
show ga
BACKGROUND: Chronic injury in kidney transplants remains a major cause of
allograft loss. The aim of this study was to identify a gene set capable of
predicting renal allografts at risk of progressive injury due to fibrosis.
METHODS: This Genomics of Chronic Allograft Rejection (GoCAR) study is a
prospective, multicentre study. We prospectively collected biopsies from renal
allograft recipients (n=204) with stable renal function 3 months after
transplantation. We used microarray analysis to investigate gene expression in
159 of these tissue samples. We aimed to identify genes that correlated with the
Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) score at 12 months, but not fibrosis at the
time of the biopsy. We applied a penalised regression model in combination with
permutation-based approach to derive an optimal gene set to predict allograft
fibrosis. The GoCAR study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number
NCT00611702. FINDINGS: We identified a set of 13 genes that was independently
predictive for the development of fibrosis at 1 year (ie, CADI-12 ?2). The gene
set had high predictive capacity (area under the curve [AUC] 0·967), which was
superior to that of baseline clinical variables (AUC 0·706) and clinical and
pathological variables (AUC 0·806). Furthermore routine pathological variables
were unable to identify which histologically normal allografts would progress to
fibrosis (AUC 0·754), whereas the predictive gene set accurately discriminated
between transplants at high and low risk of progression (AUC 0·916). The 13 genes
also accurately predicted early allograft loss (AUC 0·842 at 2 years and 0·844 at
3 years). We validated the predictive value of this gene set in an independent
cohort from the GoCAR study (n=45, AUC 0·866) and two independent, publically
available expression datasets (n=282, AUC 0·831 and n=24, AUC 0·972).
INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that this set of 13 genes could be used to
identify kidney transplant recipients at risk of allograft loss before the
development of irreversible damage, thus allowing therapy to be modified to
prevent progression to fibrosis. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.
|Adolescent
[MESH]
|Adult
[MESH]
|Aged
[MESH]
|Aged, 80 and over
[MESH]
|Biopsy
[MESH]
|Fibrosis/genetics/prevention & control
[MESH]
|Gene Expression Profiling/*methods
[MESH]
|Genetic Testing
[MESH]
|Graft Rejection/*genetics/prevention & control
[MESH]