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2016 ; 188
(12
): E289-E298
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Development of the Canadian Syncope Risk Score to predict serious adverse events
after emergency department assessment of syncope
#MMPMID27378464
Thiruganasambandamoorthy V
; Kwong K
; Wells GA
; Sivilotti MLA
; Mukarram M
; Rowe BH
; Lang E
; Perry JJ
; Sheldon R
; Stiell IG
; Taljaard M
CMAJ
2016[Sep]; 188
(12
): E289-E298
PMID27378464
show ga
BACKGROUND: Syncope can be caused by serious conditions not evident during
initial evaluation, which can lead to serious adverse events, including death,
after disposition from the emergency department. We sought to develop a clinical
decision tool to identify adult patients with syncope who are at risk of a
serious adverse event within 30 days after disposition from the emergency
department. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adults (age ? 16 yr) with syncope
who presented within 24 hours after the event to 1 of 6 large emergency
departments from Sept. 29, 2010, to Feb. 27, 2014. We collected standardized
variables at index presentation from clinical evaluation and investigations.
Adjudicated serious adverse events included death, myocardial infarction,
arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, serious hemorrhage and
procedural interventions within 30 days. RESULTS: We enrolled 4030 patients with
syncope; the mean age was 53.6 years, 55.5% were women, and 9.5% were admitted to
hospital. Serious adverse events occurred in 147 (3.6%) of the patients within 30
days after disposition from the emergency department. Of 43 candidate predictors
examined, we included 9 in the final model: predisposition to vasovagal syncope,
heart disease, any systolic pressure reading in the emergency department < 90 or
> 180 mm Hg, troponin level above 99th percentile for the normal population,
abnormal QRS axis (< -30° or > 100°), QRS duration longer than 130 ms, QTc
interval longer than 480 ms, emergency department diagnosis of cardiac syncope
and emergency department diagnosis of vasovagal syncope (C statistic 0.88, 95%
confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.90; optimism 0.015; goodness-of-fit p = 0.11).
The risk of a serious adverse event within 30 days ranged from 0.4% for a score
of -3 to 83.6% for a score of 11. The sensitivity was 99.2% (95% CI 95.9%-100%)
for a threshold score of -2 or higher and 97.7% (95% CI 93.5%-99.5%) for a
threshold score of -1 or higher. INTERPRETATION: The Canadian Syncope Risk Score
showed good discrimination and calibration for 30-day risk of serious adverse
events after disposition from the emergency department. Once validated, the tool
will be able to accurately stratify the risk of serious adverse events among
patients presenting with syncope, including those at low risk who can be
discharged home quickly.