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.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 PLoS+One
2016 ; 11
(8
): e0161344
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain
between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine
Learning Algorithms
#MMPMID27557113
Vilar L
; Gómez I
; Martínez-Vega J
; Echavarría P
; Riaño D
; Martín MP
PLoS One
2016[]; 11
(8
): e0161344
PMID27557113
show ga
The socio-economic factors are of key importance during all phases of wildfire
management that include prevention, suppression and restoration. However,
modeling these factors, at the proper spatial and temporal scale to understand
fire regimes is still challenging. This study analyses socio-economic drivers of
wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how
human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean
basin. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and machine learning Maximum Entropy
models (Maxent) predicted wildfire occurrence in the 1980s and also in the 2000s
to identify changes between each period in the socio-economic drivers affecting
wildfire occurrence. GLM base their estimation on wildfire presence-absence
observations whereas Maxent on wildfire presence-only. According to indicators
like sensitivity or commission error Maxent outperformed GLM in both periods. It
achieved a sensitivity of 38.9% and a commission error of 43.9% for the 1980s,
and 67.3% and 17.9% for the 2000s. Instead, GLM obtained 23.33, 64.97, 9.41 and
18.34%, respectively. However GLM performed steadier than Maxent in terms of the
overall fit. Both models explained wildfires from predictors such as population
density and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), but differed in their relative
contribution. As a result of the urban sprawl and an abandonment of rural areas,
predictors like WUI and distance to roads increased their contribution to both
models in the 2000s, whereas Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence
decreased. This study demonstrates that human component can be modelled with a
spatio-temporal dimension to integrate it into wildfire risk assessment.