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2016 ; 10
(6
): e0004689
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and
Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis
#MMPMID27280981
Barro AS
; Fegan M
; Moloney B
; Porter K
; Muller J
; Warner S
; Blackburn JK
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
2016[Jun]; 10
(6
): e0004689
PMID27280981
show ga
The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood,
despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of
the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have
been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from
southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern
Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of
environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the
genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax
outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis
and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal
the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of
ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant
corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands
and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New
South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and
provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B.
anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions
identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and
veterinary health agencies.